By Jackie Staple 

With Inauguration Day quickly approaching, the United States is about to enter President Trump’s second term, “Trump 2.0.” With each new presidential administration, labor and employment law changes, sometimes drastically when there’s a party change. This is in part because federal labor and employment administrative agencies—particularly the Department of Labor, the National Labor Relations Board, and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission—along with their regulations and sub-regulatory guidance, govern much of what directly impacts employers’ policies, procedures, and day-to-day relationships with their employees and contractors.

What might we expect under Trump 2.0? Generally speaking, we can expect President Trump to appoint agency leaders who are more pro-employer and pro-management, and who will roll back some of the regulatory rules and enforcement from President Biden’s term. Here’s a look at some specific things we might expect to see in key areas of labor and employment law.

1. No National Paid Leave

The U.S. remains the only industrialized nation without a federal mandate for paid leave. In 2020, President Trump approved a law allowing federal employees to take 12 weeks of paid parental leave. However, it is unlikely that a federal paid leave law that extends to private employers will be enacted, nor does it appear to be a priority for Trump 2.0 at this time. Even so, some states already provide paid parental leave, and a federal paid leave law would likely set a minimum leave amount and allow states to provide more. As a result, the patchwork of state and local paid leave laws will continue to grow. Employers will need to continue updating their employee handbooks and payroll systems and stay apprised of new state and local laws as a result.

2. Simplified Independent Contractor Classification

The Trump 1.0 administration implemented a Department of Labor rule making it arguably simpler to classify a worker as an independent contractor. This eased employers’ burden of assessing whether they were correctly classifying workers, as some classification tests present uncertainty by considering numerous factors with no one factor being dispositive. Under President Biden, the Department of Labor rescinded the Trump 1.0 rule and implemented a different rule that it claimed more closely tracked the common law “economic realities” test applied by courts. We may see the Department of Labor revisit the contractor classification issue and roll things back to the Trump 1.0 rule, or a closer version of that rule.

3. Union Restrictions

Trump has had an anti-union reputation, and his efforts to increase employers’ power and decrease organized labor’s power may continue. Trump’s previous appointees to the National Labor Relations Board were pro-employer, and Trump has previously spoken out against the Protecting the Right to Organize, or “PRO,” Act, a President Biden initiative that intended to make unionization easier. We will likely see measures making it more challenging for unions to organize and negotiate.

However, we’ve already seen one unusual pick by Trump: Oregon Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer for labor secretary. She has a reputation as a moderate Republican with ties to labor unions, and she supported the PRO Act. As of now, President Trump has not publicly announced his nominee for the NLRB’s General Counsel, another significant position that has say so in pursuing unfair labor practice charges and other labor law matters.

Expect to see more employer-friendly labor laws, such as making it more difficult for unions to organize in “micro units,” instituting nationwide right-to-work laws that disallow requiring employees who are not union members to pay union dues, and restricting union formation.

4. Continued Rollback of DEI Initiatives

Last year, some of America’s largest companies rolled back or eliminated their Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs. DEI efforts faced increased scrutiny and may face potential restrictions under Trump 2.0, particularly for federal contractors for which the President can issue rules through executive orders. We could see President Trump reinstate something similar to his previous executive order that purportedly disallowed federal contractors from engaging in certain DEI programming. We could also see the administration rescinding other executive orders that are intended to promote equal employment opportunity. Additionally, President Trump has the power to shape the federal judiciary, and by appointing conservative judges, he may indirectly influence DEI-related legal claims like disparate impact claims.

5. Immigration Reform

Generally speaking, immigration is likely to be more restrictive and involve increased scrutiny. Stricter immigration policies could lead to labor shortages in certain sectors—some agricultural employers, for example, are already bracing for cost increases related to seasonal workers who work on visas. For an overview of how immigration may change under President Trump, see my colleague Sang Shin’s article here: Business Immigration Expectations Under a Second Trump Administration – Jackson Walker.

6. Little Change to Wage and Hour at Federal Level

During Trump 1.0, real wages increased. President Trump indicated he would consider raising the federal minimum wage to an extent but, like his other policies, has expressed that doing so should be left to the states. The absence of a seemingly firm commitment one way or the other hints this may not be a priority. President Trump’s priority in increasing wages stems more from income tax credits that effectively increase take-home pay without employers increasing pay, thus incentivizing work.

It’s expected that President Trump will roll back the Biden administration’s increases in the salary amounts employers must pay employees to be exempt from overtime payments under the Fair Labor Standards Act. A federal court has already struck down the salary amount increases, including one that was set to take effect days ago on January 1, 2025.

In any event, Trump 2.0’s impact on employee wages will likely be an industry-specific one, as wage and hour policies often tend to impact certain industries more than others.

If you would like to discuss how to prepare your employment policies, procedures, and practices in light of what we are likely to see in the next four years, please contact Jackie Staple at jstaple@jw.com.

The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the firm, its clients, or any of its or their respective affiliates. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. For questions about upcoming employment law changes, please contact Jackie Staple or reach out to a member of the Labor and Employment practice.